Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155b1753effb20ffd2455612e9972d68d234167f815c9b055f52299d7c3f52e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 20c | 606.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.18 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de1…1f55backed Yes | 17c | 581.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 495.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 490$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 9c | 477.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…ea98backed Yes | 11c | 410.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 12c | 211.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 205.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…78adbacked Yes | 13c | 204.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69dd…0d41backed Yes | 24c | 177.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 170.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 18c | 102.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 100.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…7acabacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eba…9a91backed Yes | 13c | 98.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 17c | 75.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes | 22c | 61.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 56.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 55.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 24c | 48.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 76c | 38.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 17.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.