Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05c9e7ccee9e3683dc82c878aea8521808e3214cc471c66c6b24fc24754e39e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 1c | 10,282$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…1f09backed Yes | 0c | 4,511$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…f76fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,785$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,371.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 22c | 1,206$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.73 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 27c | 871.92$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.37 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 30c | 809.83$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.88 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 11c | 766.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.57 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 655.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 621.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.52 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25f…0929backed Yes | 79c | 522.52$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 519.14$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked No | 18c | 504.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.74 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed No | 17c | 497.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 52c | 466.51$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.62 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 69c | 427.71$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.73 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 7c | 423.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.02 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 48c | 418.62$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.33 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked No | 51c | 401.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 17c | 316.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.03 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 305.94$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 78c | 296.91$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.88 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 62c | 291.77$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.18 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed No | 16c | 282.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 271.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 18c | 270.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.62 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes | 60c | 270$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 66c | 265.24$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.05 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 46c | 240.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa128…541ebacked No | 44c | 226.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…9ac0backed Yes | 6c | 205.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 62c | 197.21$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 195.85$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 187.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 54c | 180.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked No | 48c | 177.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…6b73backed Yes | 53c | 173.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 14c | 162.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.47 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 148.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 30c | 145.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.94 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…c9e4backed No | 51c | 143.03$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e6…6168backed Yes | 51c | 142.02$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 14c | 135.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 13c | 134.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.42 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 40c | 132.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 131.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 130.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.17 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 76c | 129.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 58c | 125.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 124.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2796…2aedbacked No | 32c | 124.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed Yes | 15c | 119.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…58ffbacked No | 41c | 118.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 18c | 117.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 116.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 22c | 116.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 19c | 106.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed No | 10c | 105$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 48c | 103.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 19c | 102.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 47c | 99.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…36f6backed No | 38c | 99.01$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 69c | 98.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 95.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed Yes | 39c | 94.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…24aabacked Yes | 32c | 92.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…f2f2backed No | 15c | 88.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed No | 19c | 86.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bee…a369backed Yes | 58c | 82.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe928…3b65backed No | 32c | 81.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Yes | 61c | 79.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 67c | 78.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 77.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 15c | 71.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 70.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 49c | 69.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 18c | 68.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 69c | 68.37$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 26c | 65.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 34c | 63.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 28c | 63.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c0…01a4backed No | 62c | 63.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…2a81backed Yes | 38c | 62.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Yes | 59c | 58.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c62…bd77backed Yes | 34c | 57.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3d…7819backed Yes | 70c | 55.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.