Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e0f518849b4b09fa962d024f268715f9f4f6e0885ef1a865639019b80591a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked No | 0c | 13,267$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 4,569$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…bec9backed Yes | 13c | 1,545$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,139$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.68 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 77c | 1,093$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.54 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f9…2388backed No | 49c | 1,052$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 48c | 740.1$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.32 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 7c | 661.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc69…5797backed Yes | 21c | 589.05$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.42 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 12c | 517.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.08 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 61c | 516.68$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.11 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 505.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 504.94$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 482.55$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 478.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 458.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.36 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 48c | 424.51$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.52 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 36c | 413.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.61 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 407.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 68c | 400.5$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.15 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 14c | 399.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.52 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 396.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 32c | 377.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.41 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 370.89$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 345.38$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed Yes | 17c | 322.61$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…508fbacked Yes | 47c | 301.83$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.77 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 10c | 286.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 7c | 283.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 254.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c95…9ac0backed Yes | 11c | 232.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +201.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 30c | 213.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 15c | 205$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 12c | 197.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.82 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 14c | 193.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 35c | 183.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.35 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 182.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 75c | 145.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 139.61$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 134.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 24c | 133.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 27c | 133$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 46c | 127.9$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 127$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes | 46c | 112.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 20c | 112.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 13c | 112.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 12c | 110.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 26c | 110.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 105.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 95.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 26c | 95.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacd4…888cbacked Yes | 22c | 91.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.55 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 11c | 89.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 88.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…b9c9backed Yes | 34c | 82.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 41c | 78.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 26c | 78.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Yes | 41c | 77.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 35c | 77.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed No | 63c | 76.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 25c | 72.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 64c | 71.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed Yes | 28c | 65.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…5e10backed Yes | 38c | 61.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 35c | 60.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 20c | 57.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 56.72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 32c | 56.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3725…f655backed Yes | 34c | 55.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 22c | 54.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 51.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed Yes | 57c | 50.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…a0dcbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 73c | 48.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2c…33d0backed No | 70c | 45.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -82%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed Yes | 34c | 44.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f870backed No | 77c | 44.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 29c | 40.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 40c | 40.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 74c | 34.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 44c | 33.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 50c | 32.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…ea98backed No | 76c | 24.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 67c | 24.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb96…b991backed No | 63c | 22.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed No | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…12bdbacked No | 64c | 22.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 75c | 21.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.