MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156ca1cb2accf2530afe7acbd94d04381ca7f234d5e0472f88e03a9946947c63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 8,677$5,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,305.55 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…dc87backed San Francisco Giants | 42c | 6,300$2,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 5,700$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 3,237$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.34 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 1,429$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.04 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 23c | 1,340$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.74 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 52c | 380.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 305.66$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 295$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.1 | 573 | 46.9%269 W · 304 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 218.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 172.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.38 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 172.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 137 | 25.5%35 W · 102 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 165.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 156.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 144.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 87.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 87.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 81.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 72.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 45c | 55.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked San Francisco Giants | 23c | 48.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 44.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 462 | 51.7%239 W · 223 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 42.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked San Francisco Giants | 48c | 24.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…6e1fbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 17.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 247 | 63.6%157 W · 90 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.