MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeda0bd2facd12977fb8ac6fdd86f6ebbec9fefd47ccf218bc0f7d860d943076a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 9,133$4,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,210.8 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 8,452$3,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.39 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 4,692$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.96 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 3,739$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.45 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…dc87backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 2,300$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 2,282$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.43 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 2,018$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.9 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 1,083$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 391$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 363.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.76 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 303.76$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 276.66$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.04 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 169$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 55c | 156.53$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 124.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 122$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.88 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 105.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 95.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 90.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 79.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed San Francisco Giants | 50c | 75.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 475 | 52.4%249 W · 226 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked San Francisco Giants | 33c | 62.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 58.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…1d75backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 42.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 35.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 33.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 28.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1e…6e1fbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Francisco Giants | 55c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.