MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ff9a4d54f692262c5dea0688439b4857f7f0de42e5efcd430a99cd06c16625f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 52c | 81,147$42,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,196.19 | 444 | 46.8%208 W · 236 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 24,781$12,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,638.17 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 17,708$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,208.33 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 16,875$8,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,823.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 49c | 16,240$7,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,282.4 | 277 | 53.1%147 W · 130 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 16,148$7,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,378.52 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 13,366$6,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,950.32 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Over | 52c | 4,051$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.44 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 48c | 2,165$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.8 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Under | 48c | 2,025$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.04 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,991$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.11 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,746$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.46 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.84 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 1,528$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.13 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 52c | 829.65$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.42 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 48c | 825.52$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.27 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 48c | 783$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.16 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 49c | 777.86$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.71 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 49c | 747.2$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.07 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.08 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 45c | 660.72$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 48c | 660.56$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.49 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 48c | 658$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.16 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 529$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.08 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 55c | 515.01$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.04 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Under | 48c | 494.27$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.02 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 6c | 385$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 137 | 25.5%35 W · 102 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 165.91$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Over | 52c | 157.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 49c | 153.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 48c | 142.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 142$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 46c | 127.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 48c | 120.75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 108.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 134 | 47%63 W · 71 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 86.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…bb62backed Over | 45c | 67.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 49c | 63.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked Under | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 48c | 52.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…dbd6backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Under | 49c | 39.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2262…26fbbacked Over | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 48c | 35.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 40c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.