MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfb41b845af880dcfd71f0f5b6f9f8461e2e289ac53d5156e8d25bd5742f5bea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5461…92bebacked Over | 34c | 15,172$5,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,158.57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 66c | 9,717$6,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,303.63 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 66c | 2,048$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.32 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 66c | 1,294$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.01 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 66c | 969.2$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.53 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 550$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 450.18$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.24 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 67c | 291$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 28c | 274.02$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 66c | 239$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.26 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 12c | 227$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 65c | 202.12$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 35c | 154.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 79c | 135.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Over | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 45.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 67c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.