Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15725118b6e28448cd59a9032073bc8c2817365eff8e151e2654fe1e6712be2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 43c | 455.68$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.78 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 72c | 322.39$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.6 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 54c | 287.92$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 55c | 258$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 70c | 235$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.67 | 96 | 71.9%69 W · 27 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 211.53$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 60c | 178.18$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 155.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 76c | 143.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 62c | 139.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 134.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 60c | 130.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 331 | 40.2%133 W · 198 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 114.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7769backed Yes | 66c | 111.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 107.97$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 102.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 35c | 101$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 3.5%18 W · 498 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 95.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 55c | 94.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 50c | 92.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 89.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 41c | 87.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 75c | 81.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 464 | 56.5%262 W · 202 L | +54.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 58c | 67.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 44c | 61.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 35c | 58.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 37c | 57.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 45c | 51.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 67c | 50.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 374 | 67.4%252 W · 122 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 55c | 47.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 237 | 50.2%119 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 39c | 46.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 64c | 45.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 48c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 44.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 53c | 39.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 38.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 37.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 30.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 30.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 35c | 30.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 432 | 43.8%189 W · 243 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 333 | 39.6%132 W · 201 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 57c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 35c | 28.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 41c | 28.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 28.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 39c | 27.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 51c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 65c | 22.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 265 | 57.7%153 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 63c | 22.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.