Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16273c61dd4c71222e309ea1c05dfbce4e9b2f1e782bf329c16fe2fa87870a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 46c | 1,380$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.89 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 47c | 638.26$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.19 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 522.05$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.27 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 53c | 454$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.12 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 51c | 273.89$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 47c | 219.06$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 200.75$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 196.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 48c | 184.01$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 55c | 183.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 34c | 180.13$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 51c | 178.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 177.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.53 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 62c | 160.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 55c | 145.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 47c | 137.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 39c | 128.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 114.7$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 40c | 112.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 96 | 83.3%80 W · 16 L | +20.8wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 109.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 56c | 102.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 457 | 46.4%212 W · 245 L | -20.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 76c | 97.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 94.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 92.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 50c | 92.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 54c | 89.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 124 | 41.9%52 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 56c | 89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 45c | 82.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 81.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 18c | 79.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed No | 40c | 77.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 41c | 74.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 74.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 625 | 39.7%248 W · 377 L | +28.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 70c | 69.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 795 | 63.5%505 W · 290 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 57c | 65.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 102 | 84.3%86 W · 16 L | +28.5wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 60c | 63.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 48c | 63.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 254 | 40.9%104 W · 150 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 45c | 57.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 37c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 54.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 52.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddea…d7a3backed No | 56c | 49.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…bc63backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 60c | 49.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 197 | 55.8%110 W · 87 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 52c | 48.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 60c | 47.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 45.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 55c | 43.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 47c | 43.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.21 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 54c | 43.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…4b96backed Yes | 38c | 42.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 48c | 41.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 61c | 41.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 38.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 414 | 43.2%179 W · 235 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 57c | 35.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 63c | 34.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…38b0backed Yes | 43c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 212 | 51.4%109 W · 103 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed No | 48c | 33.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 32.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 31.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 432 | 43.8%189 W · 243 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 48c | 28.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 65c | 28.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 49c | 23.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 58c | 22.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 52c | 20.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 269 | 35.7%96 W · 173 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe141…32f0backed Yes | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 69c | 15.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C or below on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.