Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15747e78f2394653f3d199de0ee79624b3e91201701b183c20b6220dccfd1504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mentality Monsterof Execration, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Execration | 52c | 492$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Mentality Monster | 43c | 444.15$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.94 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Execration | 70c | 195.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.72 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Mentality Monster | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Execration | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Mentality Monster | 51c | 174.97$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Execration | 59c | 170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Mentality Monster | 50c | 165$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Execration | 47c | 120.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Mentality Monster | 54c | 115.07$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…1f52backed Mentality Monster | 54c | 113.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Execration | 22c | 109.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Mentality Monster | 61c | 92.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Mentality Monster | 42c | 90.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Execration | 50c | 53.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Execration | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed Mentality Monster | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Execration | 50c | 35.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Execration | 38c | 31.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mentality Monster | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Execration | 35c | 28.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Mentality Monster | 61c | 27.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Execration | 59c | 25.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsExecration won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 WinnerExecration won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerMentality Monster won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.