Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af9155e990297ec4e829afbac777dc16c3fc2e1a7cbdce066f65852a40bc237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Execrationof Execration, Mentality Monster
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Execration | 78c | 1,559$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.05 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed Execration | 57c | 1,420$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.99 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Mentality Monster | 22c | 1,364$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.54 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed Mentality Monster | 38c | 1,239$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.71 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Mentality Monster | 24c | 1,011$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Mentality Monster | 39c | 769.66$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.09 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Execration | 78c | 741.99$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mentality Monster | 18c | 697.53$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.39 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Mentality Monster | 4c | 679.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Mentality Monster | 12c | 529.75$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Mentality Monster | 19c | 524$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd0…08f6backed Execration | 70c | 422.6$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Mentality Monster | 21c | 415.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Execration | 77c | 395.97$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Execration | 74c | 379$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…f081backed Mentality Monster | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Mentality Monster | 30c | 328.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Execration | 73c | 283.91$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Mentality Monster | 20c | 255.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Execration | 80c | 236.84$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Mentality Monster | 8c | 216.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Mentality Monster | 33c | 212.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mentality Monster | 12c | 208.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Mentality Monster | 19c | 198.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Mentality Monster | 19c | 198.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Mentality Monster | 10c | 195.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Execration | 75c | 191.46$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Execration | 67c | 182.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Mentality Monster | 19c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Execration | 73c | 171.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Mentality Monster | 40c | 167.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Execration | 78c | 165.89$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Execration | 65c | 163.15$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Mentality Monster | 19c | 160.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Execration | 64c | 155.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…d7dbbacked Mentality Monster | 22c | 152.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Mentality Monster | 26c | 147$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mentality Monster | 13c | 138.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Execration | 74c | 131$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Mentality Monster | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…0e12backed Execration | 68c | 97.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…c986backed Mentality Monster | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 390 | 42.1%164 W · 226 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Mentality Monster | 21c | 89.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Execration | 68c | 89.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Execration | 60c | 87.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Execration | 69c | 85.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…e9bebacked Execration | 60c | 83.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…f5d4backed Execration | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Execration | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Execration | 73c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Execration | 70c | 79.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked Execration | 65c | 77.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 151 | 67.5%102 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Execration | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed Mentality Monster | 26c | 58.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mentality Monster | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Execration | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Execration | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Execration | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Execration | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed Execration | 75c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsExecration won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 WinnerMentality Monster won
- Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5)Mentality Monster won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.