Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157dbb03232411c2bd97af7a643128e7e2598603c212be01c88c68937287d89b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 631.85$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 326$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.55 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 253.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 42c | 246.36$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 236.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 224.39$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 196.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed No | 55c | 186.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 161.72$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 58c | 145.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 46c | 145.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed Yes | 29c | 137.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 56c | 132.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 44c | 123.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 45c | 107.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 45c | 105.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 97.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 89.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 86.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 23c | 80.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 44c | 80.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 76.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 71.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 66.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 24c | 65.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 63.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 60.43$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 61c | 54.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa361…71d3backed No | 55c | 53.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…07f8backed No | 55c | 50.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 51c | 47.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 58c | 45.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 49c | 45.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…39e4backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 41.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 47c | 39.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 45c | 39.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 50c | 39.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 43c | 38.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 40c | 37.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…d90abacked Yes | 45c | 36.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 50c | 33.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 46c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 32.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 44c | 32.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 65c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…3756backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 29.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 39c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 27.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…d5fbbacked Yes | 45c | 27.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked No | 61c | 23.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 57c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.