TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,745

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,242 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0786…0933backed No57c1,750$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No38c608.55$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.311,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes24c495.99$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.492,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes32c471.95$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.9521236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No24c404.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes55c344.01$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.841845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes31c260.59$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.743,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c254.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.5210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No64c245.8$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.051,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes33c227.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8364446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked No68c222.59$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2828847.2%136 W · 152 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec3…a081backed Yes26c220.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.8117524.6%43 W · 132 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No15c217.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.236,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No71c210.29$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0424262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes65c201.71$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7710827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No65c192.75$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No69c186.1$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5549646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No69c182.64$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6119060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes63c180.37$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4524466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8867…7683backed Yes30c176.8$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.497240.3%29 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes60c175.62$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No27c174.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No69c171.71$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.875,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes33c164.58$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.763540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes32c162.86$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.551,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes32c157.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1220327.1%55 W · 148 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes27c157$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.748830.7%27 W · 61 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No51c151.63$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.773,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0c4…79dfbacked Yes33c150$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+66.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes33c149.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.8236930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes9c137.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes59c135.82$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes33c122.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.584,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked Yes59c116.08$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9935429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No67c108.41$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8831748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c100.77$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.423,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed No45c97.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3717940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c95.65$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No67c92.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2263255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb52…ef8abacked No68c91.6$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.653450%17 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes26c90.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.572,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c87.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.774,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes41c85.96$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.983357.6%19 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+53.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No66c83.59$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1738146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c83$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.95,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No16c82.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.444,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a7…2657backed Yes29c81.66$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7518328.4%52 W · 131 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x577e…3756backed Yes24c80$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.21833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ab6…75b5backed Yes79c80$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes31c79.48$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7532738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes32c78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.041,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes42c76.45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4510463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes32c76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4442555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No68c74.84$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8980560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6da…9270backed Yes49c71.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.32862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick35cpaid+94%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes45c71.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes44c70.15$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4319166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No22c65.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c64.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.689,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes30c63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.15424.1%13 W · 41 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed No29c63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.367057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No69c61.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed Yes33c60.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8266926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No49c50.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2536648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No59c50.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3039951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No68c49.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.822,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No46c47.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1624751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes32c46.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.349938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes33c45.96$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9616530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa83b…6f57backed No43c45.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.731040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe188…c1d0backed Yes31c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.957856.4%44 W · 34 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2a73…9913backed Yes59c43.87$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.81757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c43.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.155,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No70c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed No70c41.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9611856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes35c40.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5462137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No69c40.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9968867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes40c40.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1242849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.944,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes60c39.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.535466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No63c38.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.252,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes55c38.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.346949.3%34 W · 35 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No79c37.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3037942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes64c36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.866,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42f…14debacked Yes57c35.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.344535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked No40c35$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No50c33.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked No59c33.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.994776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No69c33.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.052,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed Yes34c32.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4610554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.564,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeadc…a152backed No79c31.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No68c31.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.192,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba76…b233backed Yes33c30.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.441030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No62c30.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6253951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No62c29.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.92,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948f…0b98backed Yes54c28.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1111983.2%99 W · 20 L+21.5wins+0.18per pick65cpaid+27.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.