NFL · resolved market

Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159702d6a18c06f0765a33ea50671a14035413de078913fdc06d3b22d414a843

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Seahawksof Seahawks, Vikings
Resolved: Nov 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $18,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,444 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Vikings	38c	5,519$2,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,102.8	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3300…568bbacked Seahawks	62c	5,500$3,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,090	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	58cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Seahawks	60c	2,000$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$800	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Vikings	40c	1,253$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.31	141	54.6%77 W · 64 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Vikings	44c	998.03$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.82	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings	40c	950.96$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.38	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc9…58c7backed Seahawks	60c	645.68$387 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.29	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	38cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Vikings	40c	635.23$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.45	770	52.7%406 W · 364 L	+24.8wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Seahawks	60c	500$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9da3…a7efbacked Seahawks	59c	211.86$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.86	120	54.2%65 W · 55 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bc…c942backed Seahawks	61c	200.47$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.29	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Seahawks	60c	166.67$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.67	91	48.4%44 W · 47 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5c8…a3b0backed Seahawks	60c	166.55$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.62	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.22per pick	53cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x205f…0189backed Seahawks	61c	113.25$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.25	62	67.7%42 W · 20 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	61cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Vikings	40c	111$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	834	47.1%393 W · 441 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Seahawks	60c	110$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	182	45.6%83 W · 99 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Vikings	39c	104.92$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.92	194	39.2%76 W · 118 L	-11.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Vikings	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed Seahawks	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Vikings	40c	53.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.37	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Seahawks	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	70	44.3%31 W · 39 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Seahawks	60c	46.77$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.77	85	61.2%52 W · 33 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Vikings	40c	37.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	230	24.3%56 W · 174 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab52…5487backed Seahawks	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	44	61.4%27 W · 17 L	+4.6wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Vikings	44c	28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	146	41.8%61 W · 85 L	-10.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Seahawks	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	356	48%171 W · 185 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Seahawks	58c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	141	58.9%83 W · 58 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event