MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15ac7ce3e7a9c27d30008eb1983925a093084e7fab34ea21a0e681f10f451b87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 3,173$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.11 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 2,174$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.2 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed San Francisco Giants | 15c | 990.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.62 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 665.17$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.77 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked San Francisco Giants | 38c | 656.42$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.22 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 30c | 487.46$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 359.49$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.61 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 202.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 192.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 170.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 162.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 152.65$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.01 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 108.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 104.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed San Francisco Giants | 22c | 95.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 95.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 93.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked San Francisco Giants | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 84.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 80.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 73.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 72.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 70.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 59.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 47.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…5104backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 41.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 36cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 35.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 35.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…289dbacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 33.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 30.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed San Francisco Giants | 38c | 30.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 313 | 53%166 W · 147 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked San Francisco Giants | 37c | 27.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 21.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 16.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.