Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15cee239434b350865723054c8bdc63755832b3610b729513a33e73be0bdf278
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 6c | 1,515$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 29c | 235$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 75c | 155.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 73c | 124.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 22c | 113.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 90.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed No | 79c | 86.65$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 57 | 89.5%51 W · 6 L | +13.5wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 68c | 85.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 78.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 26c | 77.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 75.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 56c | 71.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 71.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 59.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 65c | 58.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…93e0backed Yes | 26c | 57.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 55.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc36…d421backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 48.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 44.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 38c | 43.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 68c | 41.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 67c | 40.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 32c | 31.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b91…0a35backed Yes | 74c | 30.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 64c | 25.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 75c | 23.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.