Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74e46f844f5c6694f22066e58f409489230bd90a64d6e1a6808a54d8a7b65d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 2,077$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 327.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 34c | 290.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.14 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 41c | 269.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.85 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 11c | 237.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 167.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 66c | 162.39$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 148.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 50c | 124.46$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 37c | 108.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 99.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…c889backed Yes | 33c | 78.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +134%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 75.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 72.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 66c | 71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 887 | 49.5%439 W · 448 L | -26.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 35c | 70.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 45c | 65.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 65c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 18c | 63.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 316 | 12.7%40 W · 276 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 34c | 63.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 59.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 51.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 49.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 70c | 48.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 45.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…0516backed No | 64c | 43.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 64c | 37.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5405…3451backed No | 65c | 32.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 66c | 31.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 31.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 575 | 59.7%343 W · 232 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…0402backed Yes | 39c | 30.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 29.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 63c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 613 | 33%202 W · 411 L | +36.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…9737backed No | 64c | 29.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 29.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 61c | 28.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 27.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 48c | 26.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 45c | 26.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 18.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 73c | 15.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.