Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b288e7308e1045b76b7f80c3c8b3d318e3d0bc35cbb6efddb5cac8a9bd81c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 21c | 774.51$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.98 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 69c | 644.4$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.52 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 537.17$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 296.28$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 22c | 268.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 24c | 266.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 26c | 246.85$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 17c | 182.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 21c | 173.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 23c | 171.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 75c | 166.76$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 21c | 156.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 375 | 50.7%190 W · 185 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -17.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…8206backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 25c | 135.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 128.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 127.81$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 78c | 123.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 25c | 118.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 100.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 78c | 99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 96.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 82.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 68.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 1,268 | 58.4%740 W · 528 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed No | 76c | 64.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 78c | 63.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 60.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 59.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 30c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 50.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 78c | 45.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 45.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 25c | 43.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 76c | 38.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…86f1backed No | 75c | 26.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b34…954cbacked No | 76c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 19.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 74c | 15.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on August 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.