Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e618b05758f2f75b87f99a552a04b1e591327de79978fac36cda550bbace00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 23c | 548.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 79c | 355.77$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 25c | 350.55$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 11c | 333.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…5ec7backed No | 5c | 293.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 75c | 290.21$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 19c | 277.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 21c | 272.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 7c | 223.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Yes | 64c | 199.99$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc3…f918backed No | 50c | 198.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 70c | 198.08$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 63c | 188.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 45c | 187.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 19c | 158.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 55c | 110.26$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 35c | 93.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 46c | 87.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…1aa6backed Yes | 68c | 81.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 33c | 69.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 79c | 63.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 77c | 56.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed Yes | 79c | 50.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 78c | 49.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 21c | 49.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 79c | 46.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…661dbacked Yes | 75c | 45.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 24c | 45.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 73c | 40.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed Yes | 74c | 39.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…b10bbacked Yes | 72c | 35.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 70c | 34.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked Yes | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb0…4397backed Yes | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 44c | 28.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 51c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…507abacked Yes | 75c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…9889backed Yes | 55c | 20.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 79c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 53°F or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.