NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1600083bd4e5297b10e218364712c5189e7118d484de2169094383bd43219892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,540
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ba…aa34backed Over | 57c | 3,117$1,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d1…100ebacked Under | 43c | 3,110$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 41c | 443.96$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 442$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Under | 43c | 441.86$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 57c | 421.86$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.4 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 41c | 364.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.63 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 59c | 352$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 59c | 202.81$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…71d6backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 163.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 59c | 114.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f0…7e1ebacked Over | 73c | 102.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 27c | 92.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 27c | 85.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x877a…7de2backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 44c | 68.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 59c | 26.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. Maple LeafsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.