NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc2bb34f14713c4cc92037cecd48e0c367f9aae02e8e0f7feb4d3ee34c58854
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Golden Knights, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0900…3e1dbacked Golden Knights | 29c | 3,900$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…bc29backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 3,900$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…06b1backed Golden Knights | 30c | 3,226$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,258.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efa…1cc3backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 3,220$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcabe…0ce8backed Golden Knights | 31c | 1,120$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…1bc7backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0668…c441backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 400$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights | 29c | 375.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.95 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 338.96$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 332.19$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf9…5e5bbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 320$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 33c | 250$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs | 67c | 218.22$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.21 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Golden Knights | 30c | 211.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.12 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Maple Leafs | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 112.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Golden Knights | 30c | 96.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Maple Leafs | 69c | 82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Golden Knights | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Golden Knights | 29c | 56.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Maple Leafs | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Golden Knights | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 31.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Maple Leafs | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 19.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Maple Leafs | 71c | 18.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Maple Leafs | 69c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Maple Leafs | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. Maple LeafsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.