NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc837d246206fd98c3303683a51d1fa0e00a86545996b25f7cf8c4f6c54ebb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Maple Leafs, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Maple Leafs | 25c | 2,670$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.42 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Golden Knights | 75c | 2,107$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.75 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Golden Knights | 72c | 1,707$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.73 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 1,401$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.28 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Maple Leafs | 29c | 1,046$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 907.99$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.16 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Golden Knights | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 421$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 397$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.13 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Maple Leafs | 29c | 221.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Golden Knights | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Maple Leafs | 28c | 91.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights | 71c | 53.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Golden Knights | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Golden Knights | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Golden Knights | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Golden Knights | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Golden Knights vs. Maple LeafsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.