NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f526eb86ed537a09b8f642b01ac04e023153280c33bf0c0b03d8e776786ebec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 54c | 9,778$5,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,280.19 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 6,170$2,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,328.2 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d9…878fbacked Under | 55c | 2,700$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…0a52backed Over | 45c | 2,700$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 46c | 1,630$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.43 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 54c | 1,528$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.46 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 46c | 1,456$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.24 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 54c | 1,220$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.79 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 46c | 1,079$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.66 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 1,001$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Over | 47c | 853.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 641.08$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 46c | 586.96$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.96 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 54c | 556.98$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.77 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 54c | 470$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 444$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 54c | 357$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…cd3dbacked Under | 45c | 270$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 212 | 45.8%97 W · 115 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 54c | 189.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…9431backed Over | 46c | 187.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Over | 53c | 177$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 111.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 136 | 58.1%79 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 67c | 102.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…cdb2backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…e308backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 78.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 45c | 74.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 55c | 63.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Over | 46c | 54.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 237 | 54%128 W · 109 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…c54abacked Under | 55c | 52.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 65c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 48.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 54c | 48.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 46.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Over | 45c | 46.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…a6afbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…777bbacked Under | 55c | 42.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…d9ebbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Under | 55c | 37.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 54c | 37.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93df…cd6ebacked Under | 55c | 32.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 46c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…99b4backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. Maple LeafsGolden Knights won
- Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Golden Knights won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Golden Knights won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.