Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16258e2a5775c43ed76d28ccf5f469877fcb5723602a65bff3d2ca9b08667c08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 8,441$5,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,832.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed Over | 29c | 7,060$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 1c | 2,672$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 1,691$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 1c | 1,125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Over | 23c | 823.79$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 73c | 761.93$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 34c | 718$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.88 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 47c | 590.55$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.56 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 80c | 328.8$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.04 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed Over | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 50c | 193.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 186.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 34c | 186.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.29 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Under | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 65c | 126.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Over | 20c | 105.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 35c | 103.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 35c | 57.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 40c | 55.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 73c | 34.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 35c | 31.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 39c | 29.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…fb01backed Over | 54c | 25.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 73c | 17.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.