TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf519…906bbacked Under44c6,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.9516647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under53c5,357$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,824.943,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc311…44fcbacked Over73c3,506$2,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac47…d234backed Over37c2,606$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.781764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ad…9c9abacked Under21c2,380$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x408c…9a1dbacked Over64c1,894$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf425…be71backed Over39c1,539$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.722356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+37.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb6da…2b66backed Under3c1,500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40220%0 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60012952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c1,296$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.142,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under43c926.75$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.534144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over57c888$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.8412861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under47c709.76$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.251,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over57c618.07$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.0718759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over56c555$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.210361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under36c546.91$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.171,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under14c504.32$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5512832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over53c459.74$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.088955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b0…1846backed Over56c446.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.432487.5%21 W · 3 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under43c428.8$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.971,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under43c400$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17235856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacb5…d643backed Over56c362.49$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.55848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.146448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over57c353.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.558246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e52…00f5backed Over66c350$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1196844.1%30 W · 38 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+46%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Under17c318.63$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.916921.7%15 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9720…2c24backed Under8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12e8…2cecbacked Under8c299.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24219.5%2 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21df…fdbcbacked Under61c281.05$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over56c275$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1213455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x760b…6dc8backed Over58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under44c230$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.27439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc647…2f03backed Over56c214.29$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.292560%15 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Over47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.775246.2%24 W · 28 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68ff…997ebacked Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+51.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a5e…2fcabacked Under54c156.3$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x548c…9d1fbacked Over57c150$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Under44c133$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.526660.6%40 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0511857.6%68 W · 50 L+15.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1422157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e1…0f14backed Over56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3bcf…402abacked Over33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679123.1%21 W · 70 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc884…a4e6backed Over56c91.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.073246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2920957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7219254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf035…d35fbacked Over57c87.72$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over67c81.9$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over56c74.37$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7222047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over56c69.64$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6434655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under36c68.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8181732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8312635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under41c62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2649143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over41c60.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9825352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5b…e3b8backed Over57c57.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5713754%74 W · 63 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5711060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under45c51.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.277550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc101…98edbacked Over47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over55c49.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.54951%25 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Over31c45.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.061861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f91…42bbbacked Under45c43.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over56c40.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.691,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc460…0aa4backed Over45c37.78$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.782839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f33…0d47backed Over52c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.361978.9%15 W · 4 L+6.3wins+0.33per pick46cpaid+74.2%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under45c30.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9162452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22cc…8aeabacked Over58c30.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8510051%51 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f26…14f0backed Over56c30.35$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.352040%8 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-29.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over67c30.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9212162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over67c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.97962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.32633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x132f…e7bbbacked Over56c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.44520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-64.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89d4…e370backed Over56c23.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.21977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5649…99adbacked Over56c22.8$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.032948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under58c22.42$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.912064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.69659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.810864.8%70 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.611955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.625659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Over56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.84427.3%12 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x909d…82c6backed Over56c19.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over67c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2748658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5cf1…23c6backed Over57c18.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.122334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa87a…410bbacked Over63c18.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.