Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5e102e7e75637cacd67b7cd14dd427e5fa72aa14396caceb143d2f7c8fa8cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 2,006$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6da…2b66backed No | 3c | 1,560$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 39c | 1,373$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.5 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408c…9a1dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,224$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.17 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 61c | 759$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.14 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 7c | 715.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 53c | 658.49$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.49 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 9c | 537.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Yes | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 39c | 465.79$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.66 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 303.25$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…75f2backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…2cecbacked No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Yes | 61c | 296.66$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 47c | 260$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 39c | 249.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 62c | 217.24$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed No | 38c | 192.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Yes | 50c | 189.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 64c | 188.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked No | 39c | 179.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 61c | 162.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 138.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked No | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…798abacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 39c | 89.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Yes | 60c | 73.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 42c | 71.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 25c | 57.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 41c | 53.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Yes | 63c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 40c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 60c | 30.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed No | 41c | 28.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked No | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f26…14f0backed Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Yes | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Yes | 61c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.