Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x536f4a50c2223dcdeb5cb2a422c71e580a66a6c9ac2036a6fd7d10d62cc21ace
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 8,819$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.33 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…5a70backed Over | 79c | 4,370$3,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked Over | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 80c | 1,888$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.6 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 1,811$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.11 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 79c | 1,100$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked Under | 5c | 899.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 20c | 690.19$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 19c | 569.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 79c | 525$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…e3b8backed Under | 18c | 492.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 22c | 480.48$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.06 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 73c | 410$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 20c | 287.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 71c | 223.26$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.24 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 71c | 110.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…b7e9backed Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…0872backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 29c | 85.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 24c | 73.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 39c | 63.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 61c | 57.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 19c | 56.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb874…c7aabacked Under | 24c | 50.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…3243backed Over | 80c | 33.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 80c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…4fc5backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 1.5this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.