Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16330b968fe5a7442939c0f2532c90c35cf6d8e2847d95fc17b65b1e326f3888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Estrela da Amadoraof FC Porto, CF Estrela da Amadora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 41c | 1,487$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.36 | 275 | 42.5%117 W · 158 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 56c | 1,114$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.05 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Porto | 58c | 1,077$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.33 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked FC Porto | 43c | 453.72$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Porto | 43c | 302.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…823bbacked CF Estrela da Amadora | 76c | 158.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked FC Porto | 42c | 144.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 58c | 143.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked FC Porto | 43c | 111.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed FC Porto | 59c | 92.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked FC Porto | 59c | 88.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed FC Porto | 59c | 88.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FC Porto | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked FC Porto | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked FC Porto | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed FC Porto | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed FC Porto | 43c | 56.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed FC Porto | 23c | 49.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed FC Porto | 26c | 39.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed CF Estrela da Amadora | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed FC Porto | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)this page
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Over won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.