Other European Leagues · resolved market
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x515a841846fcb8cb95c4bff9ff53ff84978a3bf047c8340d97e38f7f6f61e2cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 78c | 1,265$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.33 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 22c | 1,123$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.13 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 23c | 1,022$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 124 | 26.6%33 W · 91 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 9c | 937.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 22c | 650.7$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.65 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 78c | 379.54$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 333.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 22c | 299.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 773 | 50.2%388 W · 385 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 10c | 198.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…cfb1backed Over | 78c | 197.36$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 77c | 197.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…823bbacked Over | 78c | 155.61$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 24c | 151.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 20c | 149.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 76c | 148.95$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Under | 22c | 142.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 178 | 50.6%90 W · 88 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa5…8702backed Under | 12c | 116.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Under | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 22c | 68.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 78c | 62.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 76c | 29.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 72 | 76.4%55 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…add6backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc252…0aebbacked Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 78c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1412…8417backed Over | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5this page
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Over won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Under won
- CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Estrela da Amadora (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)CF Estrela da Amadora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.