South American Leagues · resolved market
Fluminense FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x163da0794b39b403fb8af8b7290d31f4c85cc49041efee63346b9544071fcb40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 1,831$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.8 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 59c | 1,374$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.25 | 191 | 35.1%67 W · 124 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 37c | 1,300$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.17 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 39c | 1,213$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.08 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 1,160$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.68 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 906.6$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 46c | 794.45$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.45 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 783.36$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.38 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 54c | 764.32$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Over | 64c | 763.57$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 66c | 743.35$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.58 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 62c | 649.1$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 61c | 599.9$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.94 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04b…3ce0backed Over | 41c | 475.3$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…5058backed Over | 40c | 361.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 55c | 354.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 65c | 254.14$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.16 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Over | 40c | 249.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.23 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Over | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 38c | 206.82$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 39c | 185.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 38c | 172.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.56 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb6…d6e3backed Over | 58c | 170.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 63c | 163$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f166backed Over | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Under | 45c | 132.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 38c | 128.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 65c | 124.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 35c | 124.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…ba12backed Over | 55c | 114.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 109.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 62c | 108$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 67c | 102.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 65c | 102.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 36c | 101.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 37c | 99.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 65c | 86.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 57c | 82.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed Under | 61c | 78.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…ce7fbacked Over | 39c | 74.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 65c | 72.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 61c | 72.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 65c | 70.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 65c | 70.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a2…316dbacked Over | 40c | 69.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 61c | 63.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 64c | 58.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 281 | 58.7%165 W · 116 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 64c | 52.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 64c | 52.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 53c | 51.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 62c | 50.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 56c | 50.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 40.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 65c | 37.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935b…8f4fbacked Over | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 39c | 37.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…0ef8backed Under | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…8859backed Under | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7780…c0ddbacked Over | 37c | 27.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 48c | 23.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 45c | 23.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…90fdbacked Over | 62c | 23.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Under | 49c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 62c | 19.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…08a7backed Over | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 64c | 16.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 65c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…a2e0backed Under | 64c | 16.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fluminense FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5this page
- Fluminense FC vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fluminense FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fluminense FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fluminense FC vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)Fluminense FC won
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-2.5)Fluminense FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.