NBA · resolved market
Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x163fc6b4db184cc180f4912765d03c0923992e734380152a49fa369c7efece5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Yes | 33c | 1,284$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.96 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 68c | 1,200$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 67c | 558.74$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.53 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…5f87backed Yes | 35c | 238.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…41a2backed Yes | 32c | 154.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked No | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 270 | 74.1%200 W · 70 L | +30.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +18%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…4963backed Yes | 33c | 104.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893f…6a2dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3d27backed Yes | 30c | 37.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 68c | 23.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…4874backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marvin Bagley III: Rebounds O/U 6.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Naji Marshall: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Points O/U 12.5No won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-8.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. MavericksTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: O/U 236.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.