TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$345,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$406,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,445 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Timberwolves56c52,716$29,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,159.2436549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves52c52,025$27,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,971.881,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Mavericks44c37,525$16,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,511.1566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Timberwolves61c27,090$16,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,536.8810252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Mavericks48c20,521$9,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,850.2426648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Mavericks44c19,781$8,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,703.744,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Mavericks46c14,343$6,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,529.514,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves50c12,156$6,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,078.021,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks9c10,950$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.874,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Mavericks50c9,925$4,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,959.931,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Mavericks48c8,094$3,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,884.937451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Timberwolves54c6,813$3,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,152.7917050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Mavericks48c6,156$2,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,955.0721943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Mavericks48c5,541$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.5641649.8%207 W · 209 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Mavericks47c4,750$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.4514940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Timberwolves25c4,647$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,482.5627937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Timberwolves54c4,056$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.8849244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Mavericks50c3,905$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97020843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Mavericks48c3,899$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.5538946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Timberwolves48c3,891$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.033,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Mavericks53c3,774$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.353847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Timberwolves47c3,001$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.482,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves52c2,953$1,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.084,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4185…298dbacked Mavericks48c2,914$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-70%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Mavericks50c2,901$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.636,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Mavericks52c2,858$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.1387750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Mavericks43c2,821$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.0529055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Mavericks45c2,757$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.852,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Mavericks50c2,561$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.511235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed Mavericks48c2,513$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.2710651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Mavericks48c2,159$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.431643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Timberwolves55c2,001$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.534658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Mavericks44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Mavericks46c2,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.942,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Mavericks47c1,985$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.1447748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed Mavericks45c1,969$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.211637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Timberwolves55c1,791$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.0364944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Mavericks45c1,583$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.4412240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Mavericks48c1,354$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.6717349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Mavericks45c1,322$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.812,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Mavericks43c1,302$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.862,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Timberwolves27c1,175$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.811538.3%44 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Timberwolves51c1,038$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.7547856.5%270 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Mavericks43c1,022$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.465,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Timberwolves51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49018651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…942bbacked Mavericks45c979.23$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.657145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Timberwolves27c979$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.3126639.8%106 W · 160 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe878…e281backed Timberwolves56c972.57$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.721643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6bb…6b39backed Timberwolves25c955$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.558040%32 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Timberwolves17c925$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$766.757326%19 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+19.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbe56…593abacked Timberwolves6c900$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846825%2 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+170.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Timberwolves6c900$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+441.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Mavericks45c780.24$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.1129347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Timberwolves33c750$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.512637.3%47 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed Timberwolves33c750$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.57441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…4856backed Mavericks45c736.91$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6124151%123 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f18…9aa7backed Timberwolves14c720$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.61118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick9cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x929e…1715backed Timberwolves14c720$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.6933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a4…ebccbacked Timberwolves14c720$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.6119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4722…2abfbacked Timberwolves14c700$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6011717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Timberwolves34c700$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46317748%85 W · 92 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x276b…c0c8backed Timberwolves14c700$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6011921.1%4 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1071…e39ebacked Timberwolves14c700$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6012425%6 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+70.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Timberwolves29c691$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.4580440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Mavericks45c666.59$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.4747436.7%174 W · 300 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Timberwolves27c631$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.4431238.5%120 W · 192 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Timberwolves32c620.87$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.9321242%89 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Timberwolves13c615$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.0529810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Timberwolves32c613$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.0533030.9%102 W · 228 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Mavericks36c604.73$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9228838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ba3…9a44backed Timberwolves14c600$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5182020%4 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick10cpaid+43.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Timberwolves30c593$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.2778639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c8…44f7backed Timberwolves53c557.58$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Timberwolves26c544$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.3840440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Mavericks49c502.55$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2565339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Mavericks43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2152,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Timberwolves61c498.73$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.8544345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Mavericks54c485.25$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0447651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Timberwolves65c435.84$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.841,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24de…53e7backed Timberwolves12c400$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3522015%3 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick7cpaid+66.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f2d…318bbacked Timberwolves13c400$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347437%3 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dc…a4a1backed Timberwolves6c400$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x417e…85e4backed Timberwolves6c400$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick3cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Timberwolves55c395.86$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1484150.3%423 W · 418 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Mavericks48c369.46$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5149249.8%245 W · 247 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ba…3bccbacked Timberwolves17c359$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.973030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+10%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed Timberwolves14c350$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.51816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick6cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Timberwolves14c350$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.53619.4%7 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Timberwolves32c327$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.5545544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Timberwolves65c308.07$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3331345.7%143 W · 170 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Mavericks48c307.82$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.7539552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Timberwolves29c304$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.5823649.2%116 W · 120 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Mavericks49c302.85$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.2581349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab30…379fbacked Timberwolves14c300$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25930224.8%75 W · 227 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+43.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d94…593ebacked Timberwolves14c300$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2592850%14 W · 14 L+9.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+291%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xa6eb…bc82backed Timberwolves12c300$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2642623.1%6 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.17per pick6cpaid+428%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20a3…0fcabacked Timberwolves12c300$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2641513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9309…c705backed Timberwolves14c300$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2591513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Timberwolves6c289.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.16812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Timberwolves59c280.42$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.661,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.