South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16532f0bf7e5eb1d14a06e94bf03dc02e184b9a1b5f4ae097468a50572338a22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Independiente Santa Feof CA River Plate, Independiente Santa Fe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed CA River Plate | 30c | 30,004$8,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,893.84 | 191 | 51.3%98 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 10,528$7,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,193.49 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 9,304$6,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.89 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Independiente Santa Fe | 76c | 2,426$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.73 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 1,846$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.71 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 1,616$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.84 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed CA River Plate | 19c | 1,304$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.03 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Independiente Santa Fe | 75c | 1,267$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.1 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1,703 | 52%886 W · 817 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Independiente Santa Fe | 73c | 514.86$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 1,688 | 50.8%857 W · 831 L | -4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Independiente Santa Fe | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 183.78$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed CA River Plate | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 41.1%171 W · 245 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 75c | 134.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 140 | 68.6%96 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Independiente Santa Fe | 72c | 113.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Independiente Santa Fe | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 75.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Independiente Santa Fe | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Independiente Santa Fe | 76c | 45.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884b…c480backed Independiente Santa Fe | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 74c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…6d72backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 29.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Independiente Santa Fe | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…1e9fbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 72c | 20.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Independiente Santa Fe | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: CA River Plate O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.