South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb78f502d7e3d71f29b58cbb519dd6e304fbac78db30398c455ef69fbdee2b491
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Independiente Santa Feof CA River Plate, Independiente Santa Fe
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed CA River Plate | 51c | 88,534$45,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,136 | 191 | 51.3%98 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e86backed Independiente Santa Fe | 57c | 15,210$8,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,582.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Independiente Santa Fe | 52c | 12,224$6,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,813.53 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 10,041$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,120.91 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…b67dbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 8,009$3,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,064.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 6,764$3,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,340.95 | 1,511 | 46.1%697 W · 814 L | -15.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Independiente Santa Fe | 47c | 6,461$3,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,424.16 | 1,323 | 42.8%566 W · 757 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Independiente Santa Fe | 48c | 6,000$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Independiente Santa Fe | 50c | 4,739$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.87 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed CA River Plate | 41c | 4,136$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.54 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked CA River Plate | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443b…e8bbbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 3,914$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.14 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Independiente Santa Fe | 52c | 3,381$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.27 | 2,376 | 34.7%824 W · 1,552 L | -27.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 48c | 3,012$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.15 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Independiente Santa Fe | 50c | 2,941$1,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.08 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 1,703 | 52%886 W · 817 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Independiente Santa Fe | 50c | 1,700$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.52 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked CA River Plate | 48c | 1,561$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.1 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Independiente Santa Fe | 48c | 1,209$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.7 | 723 | 36.9%267 W · 456 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 1,197$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.34 | 1,688 | 50.8%857 W · 831 L | -4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed CA River Plate | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed CA River Plate | 54c | 1,026$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.37 | 1,489 | 37.4%557 W · 932 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed CA River Plate | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 416 | 41.1%171 W · 245 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Independiente Santa Fe | 50c | 642.77$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.39 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 591$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.58 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Independiente Santa Fe | 50c | 541.78$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.89 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 385$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.35 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed Independiente Santa Fe | 48c | 319.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8286…6aa5backed CA River Plate | 54c | 266.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e7…332fbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789f…3e7dbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Independiente Santa Fe | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 142.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 3,449 | 51.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L | +22.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Independiente Santa Fe | 52c | 129.8$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 1,325 | 50%663 W · 662 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked CA River Plate | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 323 | 35.9%116 W · 207 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Independiente Santa Fe | 48c | 108.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 104.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed CA River Plate | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked Independiente Santa Fe | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Independiente Santa Fe | 54c | 96.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 167 | 49.7%83 W · 84 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Independiente Santa Fe | 48c | 95.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Independiente Santa Fe | 60c | 66.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 441 | 61.7%272 W · 169 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed CA River Plate | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Independiente Santa Fe | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed CA River Plate | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…92d6backed CA River Plate | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed CA River Plate | 49c | 39.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed CA River Plate | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…1773backed CA River Plate | 34c | 37.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 37.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed CA River Plate | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 32.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked CA River Plate | 50c | 30.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Independiente Santa Fe | 49c | 26.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Independiente Santa Fe | 51c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)this page
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: CA River Plate O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.