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South American Leagues · resolved market

CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,536 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5f9…87b0backed Over50c136,129$67,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,878.4419151.3%98 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed Under50c31,286$15,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,643850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under51c25,821$13,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,705.755,83145.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L+99.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under52c16,916$8,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,075.712,60839.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L-29.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Under50c13,736$6,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8688743.7%38 W · 49 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x999d…a1e1backed Under50c9,090$4,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,545825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Under49c7,198$3,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,670.793158.1%18 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under51c4,536$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,223.312,37634.7%824 W · 1,552 L-27.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under67c3,329$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.482642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under51c2,909$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.781,30853.7%702 W · 606 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under51c2,836$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.841,26153.6%676 W · 585 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under52c2,074$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.922,01551.4%1,036 W · 979 L+44.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0007048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under63c1,851$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.273,81738.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L-30.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under51c1,704$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.073,44951.4%1,773 W · 1,676 L+22.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over33c1,591$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.571,32342.8%566 W · 757 L-2.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Under52c1,538$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.466756.7%38 W · 29 L+9.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+31%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc73b…f046backed Over9c1,435$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.442030%6 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Under51c1,238$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.4513556.3%76 W · 59 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Under50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.3217350.3%87 W · 86 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4801,70352%886 W · 817 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50020549.3%101 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under51c999.99$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.991,68850.8%857 W · 831 L-4.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9c…b67dbacked Under50c773.28$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.641553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over21c639.67$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3319234.9%67 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under78c629.12$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.061,51146.1%697 W · 814 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Under56c599.99$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.9921647.2%102 W · 114 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under51c574.94$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.728248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c9…617dbacked Under51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Over44c340.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed Under50c319.37$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadbc…8af3backed Under49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1531464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+39.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under51c260.71$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.9681356.5%459 W · 354 L+25.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd04…c5e1backed Under80c245.09$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.022588%22 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick76cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e90…4f65backed Under51c243.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.4519154.5%104 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over41c213.78$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9632335.9%116 W · 207 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd74…bedabacked Over20c209.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7813934.5%48 W · 91 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+27.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8987…02f3backed Under50c206.96$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.486552.3%34 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5519…f7e1backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1025356.6%30 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under50c182.24$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4319251%98 W · 94 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Under57c164$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5213453.7%72 W · 62 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over49c147.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.831,48937.4%557 W · 932 L+5.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Over51c130$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.34238.1%16 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Over38c103.91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3919755.8%110 W · 87 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.512553.6%67 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Under51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed Over20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under50c88.87$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.993138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Over14c81.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d6…92d6backed Over37c75.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b18…dd26backed Under56c72.59$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.949052.2%47 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9503…1fd2backed Over35c71.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+47.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Under66c60.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.64761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Under53c60.58$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6516749.7%83 W · 84 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over26c57.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.232,17743.5%948 W · 1,229 L-57.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9306…bc66backed Under64c54.88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.76837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bf…c29bbacked Over42c52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.525653.1%136 W · 120 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over35c47.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4972850.4%367 W · 361 L-25.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58cc…6415backed Under50c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under52c43.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8828855.2%159 W · 129 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Under50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2116859.5%100 W · 68 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Under50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219757.7%56 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.921659.7%129 W · 87 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206050%30 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d71…b221backed Over50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c9…a4fcbacked Under51c39.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.426653%35 W · 31 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad90…1012backed Over51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd79a…6d72backed Under49c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+73.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f0…a0b1backed Under63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Over37c31.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7540951.1%209 W · 200 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c8…b949backed Over52c28.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.722556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6daa…954abacked Over51c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282025%5 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x334e…9633backed Under59c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb30…a57cbacked Over50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-51.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca60…a617backed Under59c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d41…6a2ebacked Under51c25.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.312347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a0e…cdedbacked Under49c24.61$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.552250%11 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb5…3444backed Under50c20.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.18850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd612…5826backed Under50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…f368backed Under80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.