South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b010a40bdda8a75301c33d11881e5ad26d7a33468baaa43bf4d033a590a1304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf588…04fabacked Over | 36c | 3,287$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.61 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…f046backed Over | 6c | 2,555$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 1,674$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.94 | 5,831 | 45.4%2,647 W · 3,184 L | +99.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 66c | 943.65$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.81 | 1,703 | 52%886 W · 817 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…78abbacked Under | 21c | 449.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.06 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +281.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Over | 79c | 449.44$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.06 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 61c | 279.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.48 | 3,817 | 38.4%1,467 W · 2,350 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 66c | 241.35$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.29 | 2,015 | 51.4%1,036 W · 979 L | +44.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 58c | 79.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 58c | 75.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…4591backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…1f5cbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Under | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 2,608 | 39.3%1,024 W · 1,584 L | -29.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 223 | 49.3%110 W · 113 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: CA River Plate O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 4.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Independiente Santa Fe: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)Independiente Santa Fe won
- Spread: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.