Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x165b4d7afb2746d74566745bb081ecd3b845ed0a9d126194bd7de317ae6e6790
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 36c | 548.18$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 522.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.33 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 390.32$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 359.74$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 359.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 5c | 330.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 43c | 317.02$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.07 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 67c | 278.68$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 34c | 250.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 77c | 247.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 233.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 37c | 178.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 172.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 171.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 39c | 170.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 42c | 130.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 128.84$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 124.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 53c | 124.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 17c | 117.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 104.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 102.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 23c | 95.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…7d3cbacked No | 63c | 93.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 67c | 93.27$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 66c | 92.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 84.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 44c | 81.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 68c | 80.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 59c | 78.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 67c | 78.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 76.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 24c | 76.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 66c | 73.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 68c | 70.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed No | 70c | 69.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 65c | 68.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 66.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 43c | 66.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 66c | 64.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 34c | 64.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 35c | 59.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 40c | 57.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 60c | 57.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…3e99backed Yes | 28c | 56.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 42c | 55.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 54.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 38c | 50.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 27c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 66c | 49.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 48.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 41c | 46.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3663…d13ebacked Yes | 46c | 46.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 30c | 45.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 72c | 45.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 64c | 45.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 77c | 44.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 60c | 44.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked No | 66c | 43.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 43.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 58c | 43.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 69c | 39.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 48c | 39.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 38.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…818fbacked Yes | 28c | 37.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…29edbacked No | 65c | 36.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 36.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 34c | 35.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 66c | 34.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 60c | 33.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…111cbacked Yes | 36c | 32.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 38c | 31.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 30.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 40c | 28.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes | 40c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 65c | 26.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes | 40c | 26.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 69c | 25.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…61debacked No | 63c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 60c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 64c | 22.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25d5…ec02backed No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…bc77backed No | 68c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.