TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x483d…65f2backed Yes36c548.18$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1974344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c522.62$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.334,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c390.32$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes37c359.74$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.691,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c359.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd65a…6599backed Yes5c330.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21947.4%7 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes43c317.02$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0793734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No67c278.68$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1711874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes34c250.54$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1818740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No77c247.51$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1330442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes24c233.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.436,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes37c178.4$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2377428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes12c172.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1232818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No66c171.37$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.632,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes39c170.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.7654043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes42c130.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1529640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes45c128.84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c124.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No53c124.38$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.462,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes17c117.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.525549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c104.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c102.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.864,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes23c95.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1511126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c2c…7d3cbacked No63c93.89$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.811520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa48a…fa82backed No67c93.27$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.082740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No66c92.94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2726566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes35c84.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.381,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes44c81.03$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.525037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No68c80.68$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.548969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211833.1%39 W · 79 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No59c78.4$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No67c78.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.956163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No67c76.93$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.419259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes24c76.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4853437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No66c73.86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.369176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No68c70.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed No70c69.05$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5310225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7515…0f90backed No65c68.14$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8315954.7%87 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c66.77$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.73,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes43c66.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2320835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes34c65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.12,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No66c64.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes34c64.72$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9459021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes35c59.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.911,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes40c57.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.212235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99b7…177fbacked No60c57.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.14035%14 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe9…3e99backed Yes28c56.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed Yes42c55.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5655538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes32c54.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6743525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No54c54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.849,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes38c50.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2994919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes27c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No66c49.67$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7522675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c48.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked Yes41c46.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0516740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3663…d13ebacked Yes46c46.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-63.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes30c45.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.789443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No72c45.68$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7932760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No64c45.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1528648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…7efcbacked No77c44.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.413770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No60c44.43$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8418650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked No66c43.86$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8714645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No59c43.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.891,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No58c43.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.111652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4c4…c488backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No69c39.93$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5418272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes48c39.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9615047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes44c38.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9932352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…818fbacked Yes28c37.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf85…29edbacked No65c36.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No62c36.37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes34c35.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.233030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No66c34.81$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6848672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No60c33.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.545154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2b…111cbacked Yes36c32.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes38c31.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No76c30.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4221676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes40c28.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6226434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc3…222fbacked Yes40c28.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.353046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked No65c28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85463%34 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No65c26.22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1716575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b3d…8ad6backed Yes40c26.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.361723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-52.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No69c25.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9921068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No61c25.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0476371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…61debacked No63c24.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.071376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No60c24.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6818452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No60c23.41$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.371,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No60c23.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3333567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No64c22.59$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.139779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25d5…ec02backed No66c21.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick75cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No56c21.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4340777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb6a…bc77backed No68c17.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631172.7%8 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No69c14.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.551,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.