TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd80a…c714backed Yes36c522.26$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.311,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c484.97$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No9c465.23$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.779436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes39c437$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.728,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No21c429.02$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8859021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes40c385.05$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.241,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No64c312.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7231542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes61c298.2$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.496,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes50c288.84$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.0449547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes41c246.7$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.331,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf516…79a0backed Yes42c246.28$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.66540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c230.37$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No12c222.4$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1336819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes47c184.37$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5829640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c180.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.642,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c166.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a15…76afbacked No58c156.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.057844.9%35 W · 43 L-10.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No26c156.69$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5145162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes43c132.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4277428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed No60c126.72$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0314926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes70c124.35$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.393063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No50c105.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.164,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c104.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes38c102.72$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1831029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed Yes56c100.37$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.31346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes49c95.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7311126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No65c86.18$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0230859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa48a…fa82backed No52c86.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.412740.7%11 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No39c83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.730442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x649e…fd6abacked Yes68c82.77$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.892365.2%15 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765d…8189backed No14c81.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.422825%7 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes70c80.51$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No49c78.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a3…b156backed Yes36c77.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.753148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No34c75.77$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.711,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No49c74.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.341,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3d…8ad6backed No66c72.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.331723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-52.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c72.3$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.981,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c72.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.337,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No63c69.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4719753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes40c68.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.143,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No59c63.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.161,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe75f…17c0backed Yes51c62.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.799443.6%41 W · 53 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No37c62.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8413959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No50c61.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.521,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No62c60.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.515154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes39c58.45$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.9225037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes49c57.3$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.481,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No26c57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0366141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99b7…177fbacked No60c56.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.834035%14 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c2c…7d3cbacked No61c56.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.271520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No65c56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6519259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes56c54.77$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.110562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes38c53.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.42,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x966c…087fbacked No44c51.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0244147.4%209 W · 232 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x967e…2fb6backed Yes38c51.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2714332.9%47 W · 96 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes65c50.42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4754043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c50.1$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.845,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…4dd2backed No62c48.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.062152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes48c47.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9226344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes70c47.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2818740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes37c47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No55c46.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2518452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No56c44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.542669.2%18 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52fd…f525backed No68c43.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.071315.4%2 W · 11 L-5.3wins-0.41per pick56cpaid-75.2%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x2ca2…835cbacked No66c43.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe509…7387backed Yes36c43.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.792722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1685…97abbacked No44c42.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7116740.1%67 W · 100 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d0…6f1fbacked No59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.61735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+119.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes54c39.69$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2111044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No57c39.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.427464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes63c38.18$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.156524.6%16 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed No67c36.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.259943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No64c35.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.633,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc08e…9594backed Yes46c35.14$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.921650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No62c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.77650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1954…0166backed Yes56c34.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.971060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…111cbacked Yes44c33.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.74742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8612…978dbacked Yes39c32.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No62c32.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8623349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No62c31.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3821068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.743525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.317138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes37c29.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8933139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No59c29.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3886173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b3…4461backed Yes70c29.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.731163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No60c28.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes57c28.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2910258.8%60 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc678…e738backed Yes61c28.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.062259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61ef…95fcbacked No53c27.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dbb…c0abbacked No42c27.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.589551.6%49 W · 46 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc495…b421backed No59c25.9$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.374953.1%26 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5544…15c9backed Yes45c25.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+47.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes73c25.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.942360.9%14 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbfc…0be4backed No57c20.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.513735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No62c19.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.232,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x416e…7448backed No66c19.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.811553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick66cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.