Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x227d5edac4207675eca56d826dfbdf4397ab796982c9d8761f8ff542f67f34bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 522.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.31 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 484.97$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 9c | 465.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 437$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 21c | 429.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.88 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 40c | 385.05$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.24 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 64c | 312.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 298.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 50c | 288.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.04 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 246.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…79a0backed Yes | 42c | 246.28$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 230.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 12c | 222.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 184.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 180.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 58c | 156.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.05 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 26c | 156.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 43c | 132.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed No | 60c | 126.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.03 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes | 70c | 124.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 105.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 104.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 38c | 102.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed Yes | 56c | 100.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 49c | 95.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 65c | 86.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 52c | 86.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 39c | 83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 68c | 82.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 14c | 81.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 70c | 80.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 78.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 36c | 77.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 34c | 75.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 49c | 74.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…8ad6backed No | 66c | 72.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 72.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 72.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 63c | 69.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 68.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 63.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 51c | 62.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 37c | 62.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 61.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 62c | 60.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 39c | 58.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 49c | 57.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked No | 60c | 56.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…7d3cbacked No | 61c | 56.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 56c | 54.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 53.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 44c | 51.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 38c | 51.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 65c | 50.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 50.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…4dd2backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 48c | 47.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 70c | 47.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 55c | 46.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…f525backed No | 68c | 43.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.41per pick | 56cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…835cbacked No | 66c | 43.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 36c | 43.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 44c | 42.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 54c | 39.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 57c | 39.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 63c | 38.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 67c | 36.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 35.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 46c | 35.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1954…0166backed Yes | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…111cbacked Yes | 44c | 33.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…978dbacked Yes | 39c | 32.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 62c | 32.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 62c | 31.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 37c | 29.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 59c | 29.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b3…4461backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 60c | 28.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 57c | 28.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc678…e738backed Yes | 61c | 28.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…95fcbacked No | 53c | 27.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 42c | 27.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 59c | 25.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…15c9backed Yes | 45c | 25.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 73c | 25.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 57c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 19.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 66c | 19.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.