Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x166b7b5ac17fd54657e58d077384bfb2e1cb2493c1ec63dbfbb0aa73fc95087f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 11,494$3,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,751.36 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 6,402$4,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.99 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 2,056$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.68 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 1,532$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.59 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 19c | 1,270$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.86 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 1,158$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.72 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Ilbirs eSports | 7c | 1,124$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 476 | 50.8%242 W · 234 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 1,102$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.13 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 999.91$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.79 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…cdd6backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 975$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.75 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 758.05$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.4 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 679.08$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…12c2backed Ilbirs eSports | 5c | 645.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 51%98 W · 94 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…5b67backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 514.4$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.34 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 13c | 498.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 435.48$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.1 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 72c | 369.73$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.72 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 369.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.31 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 307.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…fc98backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 304.13$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.47 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 267.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 244.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…755fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 243.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 237.85$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…0a08backed Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 224.71$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 181 | 52.5%95 W · 86 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 224.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 223$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 204.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…a8d8backed Nemiga Gaming | 69c | 152.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Nemiga Gaming | 80c | 145.58$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 131.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Ilbirs eSports | 14c | 128.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 121.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 111.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 100.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Ilbirs eSports | 45c | 90.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…b262backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 68.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 67.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 65.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 64.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Ilbirs eSports | 55c | 60.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…026fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 658 | 63.1%415 W · 243 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 46.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Ilbirs eSports | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…7fd8backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 36.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 35.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb844…dee6backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Ilbirs eSports | 47c | 32.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 25.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd932…af3cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…9de3backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…7f56backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…504bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 24.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedab…8926backed Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.