Asian League · resolved market
Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16869d74552fad5fa10110ac057c4a4ee703074f39d0ce375a910734b6b345b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe3…c693backed Yes | 23c | 8,960$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 6,378$4,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.15 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 77c | 1,111$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.53 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 10c | 677.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed No | 77c | 610.56$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.43 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed No | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 23c | 404.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 205 | 20%41 W · 164 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 23c | 299.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 195.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 77c | 181.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 77c | 179.6$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…de6fbacked No | 78c | 166.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…6c04backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 127.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked No | 77c | 51.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 23c | 50.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 77c | 44.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 1,116 | 49.5%552 W · 564 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed No | 77c | 43.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 77c | 32.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 78c | 32.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 77c | 29.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed No | 77c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed No | 77c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.