Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf7ac93c69aba5f3ffa22891528014825e20a385b3356363b89939f6a59635f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 49c | 3,171$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.83 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Yes | 77c | 2,558$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.02 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…8d08backed No | 1c | 2,235$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 24c | 2,222$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.24 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 1,456$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.49 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 2c | 1,372$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 26c | 1,001$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.94 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 51c | 588.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.23 | 138 | 49.3%68 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 51c | 577.61$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.54 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 14c | 511.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed No | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 51c | 392.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 24c | 371.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 50c | 306.45$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 51c | 289.01$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.11 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 51c | 264$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 75c | 250$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 51c | 240$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed No | 49c | 205.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 48c | 201.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 51c | 155.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 47c | 126.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 46c | 110.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 51c | 109.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 63c | 95.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 33c | 89.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 52c | 85.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 52c | 77.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 25c | 76.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…2ff6backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked No | 49c | 61.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed No | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d4…dcfcbacked No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 22c | 53.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 375 | 59.2%222 W · 153 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d55…f50cbacked Yes | 52c | 47.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 53c | 47.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 34c | 45.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed No | 48c | 45.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…1ba2backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 38c | 36.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 51c | 35.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked No | 31c | 34.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 50c | 30.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…14b2backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -6.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 52c | 26.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Yes | 52c | 23.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9f…8e23backed Yes | 50c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 51c | 20.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 61c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-02?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. Kawasaki Frontale end in a draw?No won
- Will Kawasaki Frontale win on 2026-05-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.