Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168f464536e2941c18e8288431052a2b589f3662b1f4ce84307fad0f6700d924
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shimabukuroof Kyrgios, Shimabukuro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Kyrgios | 42c | 2,884$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.08 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Kyrgios | 37c | 1,500$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 734 | 53%389 W · 345 L | +36.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…fa8ebacked Shimabukuro | 58c | 1,277$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.34 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Kyrgios | 39c | 1,005$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.9 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shimabukuro | 58c | 895.45$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.09 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…0690backed Kyrgios | 57c | 803.33$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.57 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Shimabukuro | 58c | 586.74$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.43 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Kyrgios | 37c | 577.78$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.78 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Shimabukuro | 44c | 457.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.83 | 208 | 48.1%100 W · 108 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Shimabukuro | 56c | 448.31$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.19 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Kyrgios | 42c | 338.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shimabukuro | 47c | 335.15$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.56 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84bc…4aadbacked Kyrgios | 42c | 333.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 242 | 45%109 W · 133 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…cd07backed Kyrgios | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 28cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd2…f868backed Shimabukuro | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Shimabukuro | 63c | 277.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c7…c7a7backed Shimabukuro | 58c | 240$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Kyrgios | 39c | 210$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 652 | 50.3%328 W · 324 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Kyrgios | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Shimabukuro | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Shimabukuro | 58c | 150.76$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 860 | 50.1%431 W · 429 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…be73backed Shimabukuro | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Kyrgios | 37c | 133.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Shimabukuro | 57c | 119.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Kyrgios | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…780ebacked Kyrgios | 45c | 102.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Shimabukuro | 41c | 96.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Kyrgios | 38c | 93.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Shimabukuro | 59c | 85.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…090abacked Kyrgios | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Shimabukuro | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Shimabukuro | 58c | 74.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 452 | 51.8%234 W · 218 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Shimabukuro | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Shimabukuro | 62c | 63.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Shimabukuro | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Kyrgios | 41c | 56.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…2184backed Shimabukuro | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Shimabukuro | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…6f0cbacked Kyrgios | 40c | 49.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Shimabukuro | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 956 | 58.2%556 W · 400 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kyrgios | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe89b…440cbacked Shimabukuro | 58c | 26.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…b3eabacked Kyrgios | 42c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…d1d3backed Shimabukuro | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Shimabukuro | 62c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…58d5backed Kyrgios | 68c | 15.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5)this page
- Set 2 Winner: Shimabukuro vs KyrgiosShimabukuro won
- Shimabukuro vs. Kyrgios: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Shimabukuro vs. Kyrgios: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Sho Shimabukuro vs. Nick Kyrgios: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick KyrgiosSho Shimabukuro won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.