Premier League · resolved market
Will Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16927c3c1afb0128be64326db9d3c179b42307c1a15b87571f841be73b7b7203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f3…f2afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,040$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 40c | 920.81$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.73 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 858.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 48c | 441.66$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.63 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 48c | 377$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 14c | 335.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 22c | 222.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 481 | 50.9%245 W · 236 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Yes | 24c | 203.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…85e5backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 73c | 120.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 101 | 68.3%69 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 19c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 88.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…4af5backed No | 42c | 83.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 72c | 67.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 44c | 62.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc766…1533backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 58.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 50.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb988…b6eabacked No | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +589.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Yes | 71c | 35.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 43.2%54 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -6.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 76c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Yes | 74c | 20.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Swansea City AFC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.