MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16d0a268bd3965bfc9699700656e8e53e8d45a3d48500294f62514ef778bb3b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 41,090$22,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,990.4 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 16,806$7,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,761.38 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 10,100$4,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,677.29 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 5,200$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 3,255$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.18 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 2,488$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 1,739$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 1,549$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.01 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,528$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.01 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 1,207$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.6 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 1,174$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,082$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.52 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 600.01$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 395.35$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 332$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.65 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Chicago Cubs | 72c | 320$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 306.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 274.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 394 | 36%142 W · 252 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 206$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Chicago Cubs | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…0d0dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 106.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 99.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 78.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 65.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 42.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…9862backed Chicago Cubs | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.