La Liga · resolved market
Espanyol vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16f5ce8e78ceca243f31ba69504dc5354dbeeb6d44be4e26c1d1740a79672b19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 14,288$11,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,986 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 24c | 13,890$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.82 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.99 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.9 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 42c | 1,500$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 40c | 1,025$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 60c | 999.9$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.76 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 42c | 745.44$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.09 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0353…c2ffbacked Under | 71c | 450$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 56c | 426.63$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.72 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 17c | 399.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…07a9backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Under | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 43c | 287.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 32c | 250$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 57c | 243.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 60c | 170$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 152.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 26c | 146.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 299 | 46.5%139 W · 160 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…947dbacked Over | 12c | 131.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Under | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Under | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Over | 24c | 81.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 175 | 37.1%65 W · 110 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x119f…2c27backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 57c | 70.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408e…cacebacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…e67bbacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 55%105 W · 86 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 42c | 49.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Over | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Under | 79c | 45.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…6e7ebacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…7589backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…81edbacked Over | 43c | 26.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 77c | 25.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 196 | 46.4%91 W · 105 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Espanyol vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 2.5this page
- Espanyol vs. Rayo Vallecano: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Espanyol vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 1.5Under won
- Espanyol vs. Rayo Vallecano: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Espanyol (-1.5)Rayo Vallecano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.