Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Chuong Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16fb3f08a2589239624eb854f728fbea142e197e41ee6ffbd7f80bd147f9f42f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 86$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 43c | 69.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 39c | 46.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 47c | 37.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 58c | 29.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 36c | 27.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…9794backed No | 57c | 27.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 57c | 26.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 61c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 75c | 23.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4792…c131backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chuong Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election?this page
- Will Chi Charlie Nguyen advance from the CA-45 primary election?No won
- Will Mark Leonard advance from the CA-45 primary election?No won
- Will Tom Vo advance from the CA-45 primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.