Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x172954bb77f8edf1e4cdbfceba10523ee2954a38b36f6651ff4f9bc9dcdd76b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 40c | 380.44$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 298.44$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 292.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 29c | 246.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 46c | 214.42$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.3 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 75c | 213.41$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 35c | 204$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 202.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.12 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 197.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.22 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee08…ca2ebacked Yes | 62c | 160.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 135.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 43c | 114.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 104.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 102.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 58c | 95.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 93.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 87.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 77.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 60c | 72.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 22c | 71.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 56.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 53c | 56.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 59c | 54.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 57c | 53.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 52.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 57c | 51.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 49.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 76c | 45.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 33c | 44.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 68c | 43.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 39.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 61c | 38.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x202e…619cbacked Yes | 78c | 37.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 73c | 36.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 77c | 31.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 72c | 31.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…279fbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 65c | 28.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 27.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 26.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 23.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 23.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 18.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 15.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.