NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178a65183c0b03978493fc180b8bf534ee1ccbf7b3559d1458fd855b352b6820
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 52c | 5,828$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.51 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 2,613$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.25 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 47c | 2,350$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.47 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Over | 47c | 981.49$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.3 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 851.22$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 750$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 53c | 444$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 179$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 50c | 156$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…a408backed Over | 47c | 59.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2e…94d7backed Over | 47c | 23.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Over | 47c | 23.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. HawksHawks won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.