NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee24ba74c88dffc2f2f0343220e80f131a75085b32d90c8f34e27a2bf2e5ea21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5224…0de8backed Over | 52c | 27,544$14,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,397.27 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 16,586$7,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,646.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 16,340$7,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,526.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…7e6bbacked Over | 38c | 3,945$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Over | 52c | 2,884$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.68 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5962backed Over | 51c | 765$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 516.8$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over | 49c | 350$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 318.65$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac0…a220backed Over | 51c | 312$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…79f9backed Over | 58c | 265.61$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.55 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 49c | 260$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 215$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2e…94d7backed Over | 52c | 186.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…deabbacked Over | 52c | 99.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…e19abacked Over | 51c | 68.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46eb…71b9backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…eddbbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…0bf9backed Over | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Over | 59c | 25.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70a…f6c3backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…0c21backed Over | 52c | 22.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. HawksHawks won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.