NBA · resolved market
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39bd719a89e475b11a24a72f19378f17bbabd3d5da41bf8f897ac4b64fa0b5bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Hawks, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Hornets | 53c | 7,500$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,525 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Hawks | 47c | 7,410$3,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,482.82 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Hornets | 53c | 1,724$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.14 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Hawks | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 53c | 1,217$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 47c | 754$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Hawks | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Hawks | 47c | 249.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hawks | 47c | 146$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…a145backed Hawks | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…28f4backed Hawks | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cff…15d1backed Hawks | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Hawks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hawks (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Hawks (-3.5)Hornets won
- Hornets vs. HawksHawks won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 232.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 233.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Hawks (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Hawks (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.